Aurora Forecast

The global Kp index is a single number, and it cannot tell you whether you will see anything from where you are standing. This page uses NOAA's OVATION model instead — a probability grid covering both hemispheres — and combines it with tonight's cloud, dark window and moon to work out what each location can actually expect.

First, the honest part: your eyes and the photos differ

From New Zealand and most mid-latitude sites, the eye usually sees only a pale grey glow toward the pole; the reds and greens in photographs are what a long exposure reveals. Colour and structure become obvious to the naked eye only during strong storms, when the aurora is near overhead. This page labels "camera" and "naked eye" separately rather than blurring the two.

Aurora australis (New Zealand)

The South Island sits at roughly 44–47°S, so the aurora almost always appears near the southern horizon rather than overhead. That makes an unobstructed southern view the first thing to look for — a south-facing coastline beats a high mountain with a ridge in the way.

Aurora borealis (Arctic)

Most of these sites lie under or right beside the auroral oval, where displays are common even on quiet nights and frequently pass directly overhead. Here the limiting factor is usually cloud, not geomagnetic activity.

Four things worth understanding before you chase

Aurora probability: NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (OVATION Aurora Model). Cloud and dark window: Open-Meteo. All figures are model estimates — trust what you actually see on the night.

Related tools: Taiwan Dark-Sky Map · Stargazing & Moon Viewing Score · Astro Events